The Next Big Thing doesn't exist...says IBM

In a CNET story today IBM exec Nicholas Donofrio says The Next Big Thing doesn't exist. "The fact is that innovation was a little different in the 20th century. It's not easy (now) to come up with greater and different things," Donofrio said. "If you're looking for the next big thing, stop looking. There's no such thing as the next big thing,".

The Next Big Thing does exist...it just doesn't look BIG to IBM. That is a common problem with large companies. When you have revenues of $40B to $100B no one thing will move the needle. Nothing looks big or interesting. Innovative or disruptive technologies are viewed as a threat to the core revenue stream, rather than promising new opportunities. This is the premise of The Innovators Dilemma by Clayton Christensen.

Here is a sampling of the hot start-ups we are working with now. Any one of them could emerge as The Next Big Thing.

Adesso Systems—Mobile apps for an occasionally connected world. A Red Herring  100. Think "WinFS today."

Akimbi—Automates and accelerates the setup and teardown of even the most complex multi-machine software configurations using virtualization technology. Winner at Under the Radar.

Akimbo—The first functional marriage of TV and the Internet. "Your wish is on demand."

AtHoc—Alerting specialists for warning systems, emergency operations centers, and critical communications.

AviCode—Can pinpoint the exact source of any bug in a .NET application in real-time—during production or development. Identifies the exact line of problem source code.

BeVocal—Provides hosted self-service voice application solutions for carriers and call centers.

Cicero Networks—Voice over Wireless IP that harnesses the power of wi-fi and Bluetooth networks to deliver wireless voice services.

Colligo—Instant collaboration for teams in the field: Lets any wireless capable laptop, Pocket PC, or Tablet PC instantly and securely network to one or more computers no matter where you are.

Coveo—Specialized enterprise search with superior relevance ranking, document summaries, and integrated security.

CXO Systems—Web services-based dashboards that enable a one-touch, comprehensive view of multiple business functions in real time.

Digipede—Its "many legs make light work" and turn any combination of servers and desktops into a grid for .NET apps.

EchoPass—Offers complete solutions for on-demand call and contact center needs.

eSecurity—Security event management and continuous compliance monitoring for IT controls; makes sense out of the deluge of security log data that all the different systems on the network spit out.

Exact Target—A SaaS e-mail marketing company with a very slick AJAX interface that has achieved massive scale.

Fortify—Kind of like a mega-powerful cereal for your code; it figures out security problems during code development so you don't become the next statistic.

Forum Systems—Hardware appliances provide secure transmission and acceleration of XML data.

Fractal Edge—Cool visualization technology that lets you maintain and know your place anywhere within the hierarchy as you drill down on data. A Red Herring  Top 100 Private Company in Europe, 2005.

Grouper—Provides a way for friends and family to share videos and photos online via .NET smart client applications. Friends-only file sharing.

IdeaBlade—.NET on Rails. A framework for building service-based applications and distributed clients.

IP Commerce—Transaction payment platform and toolsets that enable the IP Payments Framework, a partnership Software as a Service system for incumbent and emerging players involved in electronic payments. Chase Merchant Services, a division of Chase Manhattan Bank, is an initial partner.

IDV Solutions—A visualization and geographical mapping solution. Integrates with MapPoint, Visio, and SQL.

K2.net—Enterprise scale workflow solution that automates any business process spanning people, divisions, technology, and distance. It has a powerful drag-and-drop design environment.

LoyaltyLab—Software service that lets merchants easily manage an online rewards/points system and create custom marketing messages to customers.

Newsgator—RSS aggregation from consumer to enterprise, from phone to desktop.

Onfolio—Built into the browser, it's a convenient and familiar tool that will help make web research more efficient, thorough, and organized.

OutlookSoft—Web-based solution delivers real-time planning, budgeting, forecasting, consolidation, analysis, reporting, score carding, and process management.

OSIsoft—Delivers performance management software to the world's leading process manufacturing, life sciences, and utility companies—anywhere real-time operational metrics fuel performance.

Oxlo Systems—Lets automotive dealers integrate their systems with auto manufacturers, service providers, and other partners.

Rackwise—Focused on automating the manual processes associated with designing, documenting, and tracking changing networks in a datacenter through an on-line subscription service.

Skelta—Superior yet affordable workflow technology has let software vendors and enterprises implement workflows rapidly and at significantly reduced costs. 100% web based, multicultural architecture for anywhere, anytime access. Red Herring  Top 100 Private Companies in Asia.

Tableau—The Visual Spreadsheet, it provides visual reporting and analysis solutions.

Workshare—Lets you exchange high-value business documents and be certain the right information—and only the right information—is in your document. Works in-line with Microsoft Office

Comments

[Dharmesh Shah]

I am a big fan of Christensen's work and would agree that large companies don't often see the "next big thing" because of their sheer size and how big the "thing" would have to be to move the dial.

However, going even further, Christensen posits that often management at big companies does see some change coming, but "smart" management focuses on listening to their best customers and providing "sustaining innovations" (on the same performance curve). Sometimes, they can even be big sustaining innovations, but still not curve-jumping and disruptive.

This is the Innovator's Dilemma. Even *good* management is often incented not to innovate and serve the existing market.

[Egils Milbergs]

You miss Nick Donofrio's main insight. He has not given up on the future -- to be a successful innovator one needs to manage in a larger context than just product -- or the next big thing. As Donofrio points out ...when it comes to innovation, there is a need to think collaboratively and in a multifaceted manner, as this determines who wins and who loses....innovation today is more about services, process, business models or cultural innovation than just product innovation. I don't interpret these comments as lacking vision or giving up on innovation. In fact I applaud IBM for its recognition that the nature of innovation is changing itself. The next wave of exciting and transformational products and services (of which there will be many) will emerge from new business innovation models that are multidisciplinary, open, collaborative, networked and adaptive. I think that's what Donofrio was talking about and is working on. Hope this helps.

[WebMetricsGuru]

I found your post on innovation very revealing. I took a look at several of the companies your working with and they have exciting products.

One things though, many of the companies products are really geared at professional services - they're not in the reach, is some cases with the average consumer. Can a revolution happen without the consumer?

Just wondering.

[Don Dodge]

Thanks for the comments. I agree on your points about the Innovators Dilemma. I have been a VP of product management at several companies and had to make the tough choices between adding features for your existing customers versus doing something totally new and unproven. Every company faces this trade-off to some degree. The bigger the company the more customer requests. It is tough.

On Nicholas Donofrio, I think it was a poor choice of words. But I would also point out that there is a big difference between invention and innovation. I would aggre that there are very few inventions coming out of research labs that will be the next big thing. However, there are LOTS of innovations (commercializing an invention with process innovations) that are indeed big things. Who would have thought that cell phone ring tomes would be a $5B business?

On the Consumer role in big things, yes, the consumer is usually a big part in making a product/service a big thing. In fact, it is hard to think of a big innovation that does not include the consumer.