2007 Predictions for the web and software

It is that time of year again. Time for predictions for 2007. First out of the gate is Richard MacManus of Read/Write Web with a must read opus that covers just about everything.

My prediction for the top 5 hot areas for 2007 should be no surprise to regular readers of my blog.

1. Online Video / TV - YouTube burst onto the scene in a big way last year paving the way for consumer generated video. BrightCove is my pick for the commercial side of Internet TV/Video.
2. Browser based applications - JotSpot, SocialText, WikiCalc, Zoho, ThinkFree, and others released first versions of Office like productivity applications. Expect to see these apps get better and the competition to heat up.
3. Mobile web - The press calls cell phones the third screen (TV, Computer, Phone). They have it backwards, the cell phone is the first screen for the younger generation. Mobile applications are hot, going far beyond ring tones. Location Based Services will be hot in 2007. Mobile search is a multi billion dollar opportunity. Companies to watch; uLocate, ScanBuy, EnPocket, Innovectra.
4. RSS, Blogs, Wikis - These are already hot for the tech crowd but they will go mainstream in 2007. Blogs and Wikis will move beyond simple applications to becoming a platform for applications. Companies to watch; Blogtronix, Telligent.
5. Vertical Search -  I have written extensively about the three monster markets for search; Mobile Search, Local Search, and Classified Ad Search. Other areas that will be hotter in 2007; People Search, Product Search, Video Search.

Those are my top 5 picks for hot markets in 2007. Richard MacManus has about 50 picks which I will attempt to summarize here. But, don't be lazy... read all of Richard's post here. It is worth the time.

RSS will go mainstream
Structured data will be a big trend
Widgets will continue rising in 2007
Web Office will continue to ramp up
The consumerization of the enterprise will infiltrate corporate IT
Rich Internet Apps will be a major force
Google in particular will continue to push the boundaries of browser-based apps
Semantic Web products will come of age
Expect more big things from Amazon
Expect some shakeups in the online advertising market
Online ad models will improve / evolve
Search 2.0 and the rise of the vertical search engines
Microsoft’s Windows Live services will gain real momentum
Google may come out with some form of GoogleOS
Open Source Desktops will continue to gain momentum
Browser competition between IE7 and FireFox (plus Flock, Opera and Maxthon)
Expect Safari compatibility to rise sharply in 2007
Internet-based TV will ramp up in 2007
Peer-to-Peer will gain momentum again
SecondLife - an important platform for marketing, promotion, social networking
Virtual Money: Paypal showed the way, SecondLife LindeX, Microsoft points etc.
The online real estate market will grow rapidly in ‘07
The search for disruptive business models will continue!
Social networks will probably also become more open
International Web will finally start to get its due in mainstream media
One Laptop Per Child may increase the adoption of thin-client like computers
Broadband continues to grow
VoIP space will really hot up
Mobile Web may be the big story of 2007
Mobile will be a bigger development and advertising platform in ‘07
Webphone market - for example Apple’s rumored iPhone and a GooglePhone

OK, what do you think will be hot in 2007?

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Comments

[Jeff Tokarz]

Yes, vertical search will be hot in 2007. However, vertical search engines must do be better job of returning relevant search results. Without this improvement - vertical search will me marginalized.

[Steve Morsa]

A far better, more robust, and truly disruptive online ad model; offering true pinpoint targeting; will arise in 2007:

Match Engine Marketing (MEM)/paid match...

... with which, for the first time in history (as can be seen in the white paper posted at MatchTo.com and pending patent #11/250,908), advertisers of all sizes and advertising expertise will be able to quickly and easily reach their most desired customers by selecting and bidding on these customers actual traits and characteristics (keytraits); instead of settling for trying to indirectly and problematically reach them merely through the words they enter into little search boxes...or worse, by surreptitiously following them around as they travel from website to website..

The only real question left as 2006 comes to a close is this:

Will it be MSN, Yahoo, AOL, Ask/IAC, NewsCorp, Google...or a qualified, forward-thinking VC, company, or other entity which will be the benefactor of bringing this next multi-billion dollar/year PPC ad platform to the national and international marketplaces?

Web 2.0?

Welcome to PPC 2.0.

[Sebastien Provencher]

I've posted my top predictions for 2007 on my blog but here's a small taste. I think we agree on a lot of them. BTW, they're all around local search and social media as this is where my interest lies.

1) Atomization: 2007 will see the acceleration of content/functions/applications atomization (decentralization) via the adoption of multiple syndication methods like RSS, XML and APIs.

2) Verticalization: The success of generalist social networks and online video sites in 2006 means that we will see the arrival of a multitude of new specialized players in these two fields.

3) RSS: a clear business model for RSS will emerge.

4) Local will become more social / Social will become more local.

5) Traditional Media will continue to realize that they desperately need to capture eyeballs online, leading to more online acquisitions and/or investments.

6) Long distance & local calls will continue their move towards free.

7) Traditional media will create SEO job positions.

8) Video Monetization: a clear business model will emerge.

9) The proliferation of destination sites without clear business models will lead a lot of them to adopt the B2B business model.

[Rasheed]

Great post!

It'll be interesting to see where a lot of these prdictions go and how they evolve at internet speed over the year.

VERY exciting times!

[awi]

Like your idea of mobile web. You should look at the great success of Opera Mini. 8m downloads above 2.5bn page views. They target 30m downloads of their free mobile browser in 2007. Its happening! They also have some pressrelase about search on mobile you should look at

[Dave Forde]

Don - Great post, do you think blogs will still be in their current form in 2007? We're starting to see many companies integrate them completely to the point where it isn't the standard WordPress or TypePad anymore out of the box

[Brian A.]

In mirroring your comment from point 3 (Mobile Web) I would say that the widespread adoption of Blogs, and to some degree Wikis, has already begun. I see an ever increasing number of non-technical Blog and Wiki sites spring up, most of which are created by "younger generation". We the developers need to keep an eye on this segment of the online population as they are a driving force in the growth and adoption of new technologies and services.

[Winterm00t]

I'll admit I've not read all of the forecasting blogs, but here's some predictions I've not seen yet.

- A social networks aggregator allows people to (1) manage multiple profiles/accounts simultaneously (2) use one point of contact for social networking to many social networks.

- Successful social networks become fully networked, allowing many of their their widgets and content to be portable to other web sites and formats. Everyone's web presence becomes a mashup.

- RSS won't be adopted by the mainstream until (1) the 'S' truly stands for simple, and not standalone, and (2) a killer reason exists for the mainstream to use it.

- Content providers are compelled to develop standards or best practices to address copyright infringement and actions for inappropriate behaviors, or governments start to do it for them.

- Virtual worlds proliferate and become specialized (just like social networks!) to meet the demands of users' interests, such as truly child-safe environments and specialized worlds.

Feel free to make any of these happen, so that my future as a prognosticator is secured. :)

[Olivier Attia]

Although Founder of SCANBUY I am pleased to see SCANBUY in the companies to watch but I am wondering why CameraPhonePicturePlatform is not in the list. Billions of pictures taken every day with these things. Thanks Don. Great blog!

[Joost]

Great to read Don! I didn't know your blog until now. I hope I may add my expectations of 2007:
1. Consumerization, the adoption of consumer applications (on the web) within the organization, partly due to a new generation of 'digital natives' entering the workforce.
2. Finding information within the organization has become critical due to reorganizations and restructuring. Enterprise portals are starting to become mainstream.
3. Software as a service is becoming interesting enough for business. Translating processes in terms of services when it comes to software, becomes a natural behaviour.
4. Blogging and wiki become natural way to communicate within organizations.
5. Mash up, i.e. breaking up structures (all kinds, information, techniques, organizations) in little pieces and joining them in new meaningful ways, will remain the most dramatic and creative effect of this information age.
6. The world as a whole and the world of business becomes more and more 'real time'; steering the company will be more complex but also more direct.
7. Knowledge management becomes a focus point of management (instead of something academic). The way to organize it will be in terms of 'ownership', bottom up or horizontal, definitely not top-down.
8. Strategy has to be formulated in terms of stories that are credible, understandable and inspiring. Vision will become even more important than it already is.
9. Management of the social environment will start to become an important competence.
10. Work will be done more and more in virtual environments.
11. Virtual worlds and games are becoming ways to communicate in business. Closing the gap between virtual and real world.
12. Strategic issue will be how to organize 'structured chaos' in the company.

[gb]

Don,
why are you predicting too much into technology than its application?
All those you have mentioned there are just technologies. They are all still horizontal markets and technologies. May be it is because you work for a platform company?

gb

[Gareth Plummer]

Dear Don,

With reference to your predictions to 2007 I was wondering how much you value the prospect of Power Over Wireless?

With Regards,

Gareth

[Gareth Plummer]

Dear Don,

I know this is my second email but I just notices you work with Newsgator. I am currently setting up a website call PowerOverWireless.com I intend to add RSS feeds from various sources but I am struggling resolve the issue of RSS feeds to CSS/HTML. Could you advise me on this or advise where I can find a step by step guide from.

With Regards,

Gareth

[Annerose]

These comments have been invaluable to me as is this whole site. I thank you for your comment.

[George]

Barcle covers point # 3 (mobile)
and # 5 (search) of you list.

mobile.barcle.com is a mobile barcode
driven search tool.

With over 14 million barcodes the idea
is the convergence of low online pricing
and the mobile ability to be instore
seeing, touch and understanding the
particular product. Just type in the
product's barcode and Barcle will show you
comparitive online pricing. The name of the
product can be confusing. With the barcode you know you have the right item.

QR code is neat but a pipe dream for now.

There is a companion desktop version at
www.barcle.com

Barcle is free and there is nothing to sign up for. Smart and easy..save time and money.