Twitter is everywhere. Is it overhyped? Or is it another case of Macromyopia; over-estimating the short term effects and under-estimating the long term impact. No doubt there is a lot of hype and attention around Twitter, fueled by Ashton Kutcher, CNN, and Oprah. Many are saying Twitter has “jumped the shark”, is overhyped, ruined, and will never be the same. They said the same thing about Facebook when it went from just college students, to opening up for anyone who wanted an account. That was 190 million Facebook accounts ago.
Sarah Lacy at TechCrunch suggested bloggers should stop the hype cycle, referring to the well known Gartner model for technology adoption. Funny thing…it is bloggers, and sites like TechCrunch, that add fuel to the hype fire, so it is a bit ironic that TechCrunch should be leading the charge to stop the hype cycle. That said, Sarah and TechCrunch are absolutely right. We need to avoid the hyperbole and attention grabbing headlines of the next Google killer, and focus on what is new, useful, and potentially profitable.
Hype happens all the time. Any Google announcement of a beta project or product release gets instant credibility and is often labeled the XYZ Killer. Google Spreadsheet was announced a three years ago and people immediately labeled it an "Excel Killer". Give me a break! Not even close. Three years later…Excel is still doing very well, thank you.
Macromyopia is part of the hype cycle. The Internet in 2000 was a perfect example. It was hyped by the press, overvalued by the stock market, and expectations went through the roof. The crash of the Internet bubble in 2001 was the predictable “trough of disillusionment” in the Gartner model. At that point many Internet stocks had market cap valuations lower than their cash balance.
Twitter may be another case of macromyopia. The hype and expectations are high. But, I don’t think we really understand yet what Twitter can become, how best to use it, and how it can make money. It is more than just short text messaging in a web browser that anyone can follow. To most people Twitter is just an efficient two way communication tool that is fun. But, Guy Kawasaki has figured out how to use Twitter in lots of interesting ways. He calls it “the most powerful marketing tool invented since TV,...and it's free. Bill Gates or LonelyGirl only get 140 characters.”
Twitter can be used as a teaser or pointer to an interesting story, product offer, or marketing message. Twitter is not the revenue channel, it is the lead generator. Twitter is the fastest, easiest, way to get a message to thousands or millions of people. Twitter is real time, so it is great for breaking news stories, or following stock market movements. Twitter may prove to be a very effective real time search engine with results filtered by what is currently hot, or what your friends and followers care about. Twitter could be a component of many Location Based Services that will thrive on cell phones.
The point is, we don’t really know yet all the ways Twitter can be used, and the most effective way to monetize its huge and fast growing social network. It is clear that Twitter is more than just a passing fad. Yes, the technology can be easily replicated, but, the audience cannot. Social networks are all about connecting people and letting them communicate. It is the power of the network…not the technology.
Subscribe - To get an automatic feed of all future posts subscribe here, or to receive them via email go here and enter your email address in the box in the right column. You can also follow me on Twitter @dondodge
