I spent some time with Bob Geiman from Polaris Ventures last week. Bob focuses on wireless communications infrastructure, networks, and devices. We had a spirited discussion about The Next Big Thing in wireless. We concluded that the big cell phone network players will not lead the way, and in fact, the USA will probably not lead the way either. Europe and Asia are way ahead of the US in wireless technology creation and adoption.
Small start-ups will innovate, create new products, and define new market segments. This is just another example of The Innovators Dilemma that encourages companies to hold on tight to their existing products and markets and avoid risky innovation. However, in the end, it is likely that the dominant players will acquire the innovators once the technical design risk is out of the way.
Convergence has been the buzzword of the last decade. The thought is that we have too many devices and we want them converged into one super device. Most cell phones have built in cameras. Many cell phones can send and receive email, and do basic web browsing. The Blackberry has been very successful with corporate business travelers for email. Blackberry has also added a phone. HP has a cool new Smart Phone the iPAQ 6500 that can do it all.
User Interface design matters, especially in converged devices. Let me share a simple example. The remote control to my big screen TV has 51 buttons. I use 5 of them; power, volume up/down, channel up/down, mute, and alternate channel. The rest of the buttons attempt to control my DVD, VCR, and Tuner. But they often don’t work because they are incompatible with my component devices. Sound familiar? It happens often in software, hardware, consumer devices, etc.
In the case of cell phones everything works well until you need to type in commands or data. The form factor is just too small. The Blackberry introduced a “thumbing” keyboard that works quite well, and a reasonable sized screen for viewing. T9 was supposed to be the answer for cell phone data entry but for me it is just too slow and frustrating. So, the choices are a larger form factor like the iPAQ or Blackberry that are optimized for data entry and viewing, or a smaller form factor cell phone which is optimized for lightweight passive activities.
Apple is one of the few large established companies I can think of that can still innovate and create entirely new product categories. Apple has successfully solved The Innovators Dilemma. Steve Jobs is clearly a leader who can think outside the box and take on huge challenges. Another important factor is elegant User Interface design, something Apple has always been known for.
Apple and Motorola recently introduced a new phone the motoROKR with iTunes which combines a cell phone with a music player. It is currently limited to 100 songs but that will probably suffice for your secondary music/photo device. The motoROKR is sure to be a hit with the young (14 to 24) crowd.
If you want to know where the market is going watch young people. I have two teen age boys. They don’t use email, they use IM. They don’t buy CD’s, they use an iPod and digital music. They don’t use cameras; they have one on their cell phone. And they have already asked to upgrade their cell phone to a motoROKR.
My kids tell me the ultimate cell phone would be one that could store lots of music, have a screen big enough to view pictures, a thumb keyboard for data entry, wireless IM for instant communication and presence awareness, and still fit in your pocket. Price doesn’t matter…because Dad is paying J The key to success will be an intuitive and elegant user interface design.
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