MacroMyopia and the technology hype cycle

Google product announcements are a perfect example of MacroMyopia, somewhat analogous to what Gartner Group calls the Technology Hype Cycle. MacroMyopia is simply, over-estimating the short term effects and under-estimating the long term impact.

There is a lot of hype and expectation surrounding any Google announcement or product release. Google Spreadsheet was announced a few weeks ago and people immediately labeled it an "Excel Killer". Give me a break! Not even close. But, on the other hand, give them 5 years to improve and innovate and it could be a product to be concerned about.

Google Checkout is in the same hype category. In fact, anything Google announces is hyped beyond reason.

Warren Buffet is fond of saying that the stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run. Meaning, the stock market moves on hype and popularity in the short run, but in the long term real revenues and profits are weighed and determine the real value of a stock.

The Gartner Technology Hype Cycle theory is also relevant here. The same concept is at play here. In the short term there is unrealistic hype. Analysts predict a huge multi billion dollar untapped  market.Then reality sets in, competitors react, and the excitement wanes...or what Gartner calls disillusionment. However, over the long term the early adopters attract the followers and the product "crosses the chasm". Remember "Crossing the Chasm"? Hmmm...this is turning into a cliche riddled diatribe. I think you get the point.

The rational thing to do is follow the money. Don't be dazzled by the technology. Examine the business model to see if it makes sense and can scale up to a meaningful size business. Anticipate how competitors will react and adapt in the future. Then decide if this is really something that will change the game. Most times it will not, but there could be valuable lessons. Are you listening Redmond?

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Comments

[James Governor]

gartner may insist you take that graph down. happened to sandy kemsley this morning with another post. why don't you use Crossing The Chasm, which I believe GG repurposed for the Hype Cycle.

and who thought up macromyopia - that one of yours? i quite like it.

[Don Dodge]

The MacroMyopia concept has played out many, many times over the past 10 years...we just never had a good name for it.

It is uncertain who first "coined" the term. I first read it an a random blog post a couple months ago. I just did a web search on the term and it appears that both Paul Saffo and John Perry Barlow claim to be the originators. Like most things it was probably used by regular people like you and me, until some famous futurist latched onto it. Then it became popular and noteworthy.

I just like the term MacroMyopia because it is memorable and succinctly describes a phenomenon that happens all the time yet we rarely recognize it.

I haven't heard anything from GG, and didn't see any copyright on the graph either. I will be happy to take it down if they request. You are right, Geoffrey Moore had the Crossing the Chasm idea long before Gartner.